A Tale of Three Cities

Our 2025 survey of Scottish small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) revealed a striking finding - four-fifths of business owners felt that their viability was at risk.

As we moved into 2026, just months ahead of the next Holyrood election, we wanted to put this issue under the microscope once again to see if the needle had shifted. While concerns about survival remain widespread, largely unchanged from mid-2025, with 81% of Scottish SMEs expressing survival fears, the level of optimism businesses are expressing about their sector has experienced a sharp drop, falling from 83% last year to 50% in 2026. The expanded scope of this year’s research also uncovered notable regional differences in sentiment.

We surveyed more than 600 SME owners across Scotland and, of the regions around Scotland’s biggest cities, Edinburgh and the Lothians emerged as the least confident.

When asked what they thought about their viability in the next 12 months, 84% of SME businesses surveyed in the area reported concerns about business survival, compared with 82% in Aberdeen and the North-east and 75% in Greater Glasgow and Clyde.

The varying levels of confidence are also reflected in the priorities of SMEs across each region for 2026. In Greater Glasgow and Clyde, 40% of businesses are prioritising investment in growth areas, compared with just one in five (20%) in Aberdeen and the North-east. Edinburgh and the Lothians almost meet the two in the middle with 28% of SMEs in this region prioritising investment in growth.

While the levels of confidence may have differed, the three cities, and their surrounding areas, are in alignment on certain factors. Of particular interest is the increasing importance of digitalisation in SME operations, with 41% of SMEs from Aberdeen and the North-east intending to invest in digital adoption and AI this year, alongside 40% of businesses in Greater Glasgow and Clyde and 38% in Edinburgh and the Lothians.

Similarly, the three regions – along with Scotland as a whole – are aligned on what the Scottish Government can do to improve conditions for SMEs across the country. The most commonly identified priorities were stimulating inward investment, cited by around a third of respondents, followed closely by improving the availability of grant funding (31%).

With the Holyrood election fast approaching, policymakers should heed this clear call for stability and targeted support that enables SMEs to plan, invest and grow. Across Scotland, Aberdein Considine’s 2026 SME Business Outlook highlights an embattled yet resilient and pragmatic business community, reflecting shared challenges and regional nuances. With viability concerns weighing heavily on businesses, ambitions for growth are being dampened, leaving the future of many Scottish SMEs hanging in the balance.